Joseph Marc Blumenthal

  Rising inflation in the US and around the world is forcing investors to assess the possible implications for "risky" assets (typically equities) and "safe" assets (such as US Treasury bonds). The traditional investment recommendation is to allocate wealth according to the 60/40 rule: 60% of the portfolio should be in stocks that bring more profit, but are more volatile, 40% - for bonds that bring less profit and are less volatile. Correlation between stock and bond prices Stock and bond prices are usually negatively correlated (when one rises, the other falls), so this combination will balance the risks and returns of the portfolio. When investors are optimistic and the economy is booming, stock prices and bond yields rise while bond prices fall. When investors are pessimistic and the economy is in recession, stock prices and bond yields decline, while bond prices rise. Inflation hurts both stocks and bonds A negative correlation between stock and bond prices sugg

  The Economist analyzed a number of data on the activities of the Big Five: the technology focus of their recently acquired companies, companies in which they received minority stakes, employee profiles on LinkedIn, publications and patents. The article gives an idea of the direction of the phenomenal surge in investment. The five largest US companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft (MAAMA) have invested $280 billion in 2021. This is 9% of the investments of all American companies. Five years ago it was 4%. Research and development The Big Five spent $149 billion on research and development (R&D) in 2021, up 34% since 2019. Product development accounts for a significant portion of this spending. Over the past 12 months, the share of cash flows of MAAMA companies for R&D and capital expenditures amounted to 53% . For comparison: on average, all companies included in the S&P500 index spend 32% on research. One reason for the huge R&D spending is the really

  Based on research by Bridgewater Associates . Supply chain problems and rising inflation persist. For investors, inflation is a big risk. Markets view inflation as a temporary phenomenon: " ...inflation will return to central bank targets. Regulators will be able to use loose monetary policy for a long time. " Bridgewater Associates researchers disagree. "Newspaper headlines focus on local supply-side problems (the port in Los Angeles, coal in China, natural gas in Europe, semiconductors around the world, truck drivers in the UK, etc.) and miss a global cause for which there is not yet specific solution. ...current inflation and rising prices are not a pandemic-related supply problem. The supply of virtually everything has reached record levels. The reason is an upward demand shock due to the direct issuance of money to buyers of goods and services. Some inflation drivers are temporary, but the underlying supply/demand imbalance is worsening." Researchers note a s